BBG boosts approval chances from 50% to 65% By Investing.com

Investing.com – Bloomberg ETF analysts announced Wednesday that they have raised their estimate of the chances of a U.S. spot ETF being approved from 50% to 65% due to “recent developments and new information.”

Analysts say it’s highly likely that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will simultaneously approve all recent product filings after Grayscale defeated the agency in federal court.

BBG analysts James Seiffart and Eric Balkounas pointed to several factors, including SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s “downplaying” of his role in the agency and regulator Coinbase’s (NASDAQ: ) “tacit endorsement” as a bag of .

Coinbase has been selected by several ETF issuers, including BlackRock (NYSE:) and Fidelity, to form a common watchdog that meets SEC requirements for detecting Bitcoin market manipulation.

“Pressure from BlackRock and possibly Democrats could make it politically unacceptable for Gensler to drop the ETF,” they add.

However, Bloomberg points to Grayscale – the owner of the world’s largest bitcoin fund – as the main source of optimism.

“The cornerstone of this thesis is Grayscale’s victory over the SEC in federal court,” Seyffart tweeted (NYSE:) on Wednesday. “Could this set the stage for a surge in fourth-quarter SEC approvals? It all depends on Gensler’s willingness to fight.”

As for the upcoming dates to mark with a red cross in this question, it should be remembered that the SEC is due to give an answer on the Ark 21Shares (ARKB) bitcoin ETF on August 13, although the SEC still has several resources that would allow to postpone this date until January 2024.

In the meantime, Grayscale expects to receive a decision in the case against the SEC before the fall of 2023.